Dumb Call?
Okay, on to the second hand I'll second guess myself on all night long. I can't remember, but I think it was several hands after the previous post. Blinds were 2k/4k
I have about 45k in chips and was definitely the dominant chip leader of the evening at that point. 7 people where left and it paid out 6. Player #1 had just had A3 suited pay off and doubled up. He started off the betting by going all in for 14k. #2 went all in for his last 4k, and #3 on small blind called the 14k and had maybe 3k left in chips. I was already on big blind for 4k, and was looking at 10k more to call, it'd never be more than 13k more no matter what the flop came up with.
I look at my cards and it was K5, normally an automatic fold. Yet some ideas crossed my mind that maybe were wrong but I don’t know yet. There was 36k in the pot already, including 4k of my own. For only 10k more, I had a chance of eliminating 3 players and ending up with 2/3rds of all the chips in the tournament. #1 went all in with A3s and A5s twice now in this tourney when short stacked. Heads up I'd fold but I figured I was getting my moneys worth and ponies up the extra 10k.
Flop came up crap cards, check check between me and the guy with 3k left. Turn came up 5, I go all in, he folds. We turn over cards between the two all in players and me. #1 had AA, #2 had 77, and I had K5 with a 5 on the turn. No K or 5 came up on the river and I lost and #1 tripled up. So I lost and I'd rather have had the 10k back. But did I make the right move in calling? I wasn't favored to win but I think I got pot odds in calling.
You heard it from... Dr Hubert Jackson @ 8:19 AM
5 Calls:
He had QJ of diamonds, 3 clubs on the board, all rags. I still had 30k+ after the call, and there was 46k in the pot. 46k pot and I had a decent chance of winning.
If he would have had AK instead of AA he'd have made the same all-in move and I'd have won 30k with my pair of 5's and the guy all in for 4k would have won 16k. But he had AA.. If I wasn't already on BB for 4k I wouldn't have called.
Also remember that 14k all in is only 3x the Big blind. And 4-1 on my money with no chance of anyone going over the top is pretty damn nice and doesn't happen every day.
Regardless, anything with a face card is pretty good at 4-1 I think. But I'm open to suggestions. I'm looking for a nice logical and mathematical calculation though, not "dude, K5 isn't that great you should have folded".
K5 wins 1 out of 4 times against random strong hands I'd guess. Not AA, but certainly other hands that people could go all in with at that point in the game.
He wouldn't go all in with QQ? If he would I'm at a 30% chance of winning, or only 2-1 and I'm getting double my money for making the call at 4-1
Because you're saying he had better cards then me. No shit. What you're not saying is that I didn't get pot odds.
I don't know how he finished. I took 3rd and left the two people left where about even in chips.
Regardless, I cross posted this elsewhere and got the kind of response I was looking for, a nice math analysis:
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Well lets not get into there being an overpair to your k5, so no aces or kings. I say this because given the blinds and your knowledge of your opponents, they could have moved in with much worse. Given this you are about 20% if there is a mid pair and no one has a king in their hand. If someone has a king and there is a mid pair you are about 8%. If there is no pair and someone has a king your 11%. If no pair and no king your 25%. So best case scenario your 25%. So basically the simple answer would be no if your looking at the main pot of 16K. Side pot #1 has 20k in it with 3 players. And if you decide to call there will be a 2nd side pot with 3k in it. So you are at best 25% to win the main pot, side pot #1 you are between 20%-30% eseentially depending on a variety of hands. Given the wide variety of hands here, and the fact that k5 off is in bad shape, pot odds would say to fold.
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